OpenAI’s viability called into question by reported inference spending with Microsoft

Steven

OpenAI’s viability called into question by reported inference spending with Microsoft

Summary

Leaked Microsoft internal financial documents reported by Ed Zitron suggest OpenAI has paid more than £12bn to Microsoft for inference compute since 2024, including about $8.7bn on Azure in the first three quarters of 2025 alone. If accurate, the numbers imply OpenAI’s model-serving costs could far exceed its reported revenues, raising serious questions about profitability and the firm’s growth projections. Microsoft and others say the figures may be incomplete or mischaracterised—possible cloud credits, other vendors (CoreWeave, Google) and unreported accounting treatments could change the picture. The reports intensify calls for greater financial transparency from OpenAI and its partners.

Key Points

  1. Leaked documents claim OpenAI spent more than $12bn on inference with Microsoft since 2024, with $8.7bn on Azure in early 2025.
  2. The reported inference spend would push OpenAI’s cash burn well above previously reported levels and could imply much larger losses.
  3. Microsoft has disputed the accuracy of the numbers; the leaks may omit cloud credits, training costs and other vendors.
  4. Accounting the 20% revenue share Microsoft receives suggests OpenAI’s H1 2025 sales were about $2.27bn, lower than some earlier reports.
  5. Numbers conflict with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s >$13bn annual revenue projection, though incomplete data could explain the gap.
  6. Wider implications include potential slower infrastructure buildout, higher prices for customers, and increased scrutiny by investors and regulators.

Context and Relevance

Cloud compute and inference costs are the biggest ongoing expense for large AI providers. If OpenAI is genuinely incurring the levels of spend suggested by the leaks while revenues lag, it affects competition, pricing and the speed of new releases across the industry. The story also highlights how partner accounting (Microsoft’s reporting, revenue shares, possible credits) can obscure the true economics of AI services—important for customers, investors and policy-makers assessing the sector.

Why should I read this?

Quick and blunt: if you buy, build on or compete with AI platforms, this matters. The leaks suggest the bills are huge and the income side might not stack up. That can mean slower features, higher prices, or even shake-ups among providers. We’ve done the skimming so you don’t have to—read it if you want to avoid being blindsided.

Source

Source: https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2025/11/12/openai_spending_report/