Letting Nvidia sell H200s to China is closing the door after the horse has bolted

Letting Nvidia sell H200s to China is closing the door after the horse has bolted

Summary

The article argues that years of US export controls on high-end AI accelerators have largely failed to prevent China from building its own AI hardware ecosystem. The Trump administration’s reversal to allow Nvidia to sell H200 GPUs to approved Chinese customers (with a 25% revenue share for the US) is unlikely to change Beijing’s push for technological independence. China has already accelerated domestic development — firms such as Huawei and Baidu are deploying rack-scale systems and new accelerators; other vendors like Biren and Cambricon are advancing quickly. Historical precedents and recent moves by Chinese regulators and companies show momentum toward self-sufficiency despite earlier reliance on Western chips.

Key Points

• US export restrictions aimed to deny China top-tier GPU tech but spurred domestic Chinese development instead.
• The Trump administration reversed course to permit Nvidia H200 sales to China under strict commercial vetting and a 25% revenue cut to the US.
• China appears likely to restrict or limit use of imported H200s, reinforcing incentives for homegrown alternatives.
• Chinese vendors (Huawei, Baidu, Cambricon, Biren, MetaX) are rapidly improving accelerators and large rack systems to meet local demand.
• China’s approach often trades energy efficiency for scale — stitching many slightly-less-powerful chips into larger systems.
• Past US efforts (eg. export bans) have often accelerated China’s push for indigenous tech — history suggests a similar outcome now.
• Nvidia welcomed the policy change, but the strategic dynamic between export control and Chinese self-reliance has largely already shifted.

Context and relevance

This story sits at the intersection of geopolitics, semiconductor policy, and AI infrastructure. It matters if you follow AI strategy, data-centre investment, supply-chain risk or national security policy. The piece highlights a recurring pattern: restricting access to technology can incentivise rival states to invest in domestic alternatives, changing global market dynamics and long-term competitiveness.

Why should I read this?

Quick version: if you care who makes the gear that trains tomorrow’s AI, this explains why yesterday’s export bans didn’t stop China — they helped kickstart its own hardware push. It’s a neat wrap-up of the policy flip, the industrial response, and why the result isn’t as simple as ‘ban = safe’.

Author style

Punchy — the piece cuts through policy theatrics to show the practical outcome: export controls have been costly and arguably counter-productive. If you want a brisk, pointed take on how regulation shapes tech competition, this is it.

Source

Source: https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2025/12/09/nvidia_h200s_china_ai/