Copper supplies set to peak just as tech needs more

Summary

A new S&P Global study warns that global copper production will peak around 2030 at roughly 33 million metric tonnes, while demand is forecast to climb to about 42 million metric tonnes by 2040 — roughly a 50% rise from today and leaving an estimated shortfall of ~10 million tonnes unless supply is meaningfully expanded.

Demand growth is driven by broad electrification (domestic and grid upgrades), electric vehicles, renewables and the AI/datacentre build‑out. Supply pressures come from declining ore grades, rising extraction costs, long lead times to bring new mines online (average ~17 years), and climate risks at existing mine sites. Recycling and secondary supply will help but are unlikely to close the gap (S&P expects recycling to supply only about a third of total needs by 2040).

The report also flags concentration risks in smelting and refining — notably China accounting for 40–50% of global capacity — and calls for faster permitting, stable investment frameworks, new technologies and regional diversification to build resilience.

Key Points

S&P Global projects primary copper production will peak in 2030 at ~33 million metric tonnes.
Demand could reach ~42 million metric tonnes by 2040, a ~50% increase, creating a potential shortfall of ~10 million tonnes.
Main demand drivers: electrification, electric vehicles, renewable generation and expanding transmission, plus growing datacentre/AI infrastructure needs.
Supply constraints: lower ore grades, higher extraction costs, long mine development timelines (~17 years) and climate‑related water risks for mines.
Recycling will help but is insufficient; S&P expects it to supply roughly one third of needs by 2040.
Smelting/refining concentration (40–50% in China) heightens geopolitical and systemic supply‑chain risk.
S&P recommends streamlined permitting, sustained investment, technology upgrades and regional diversification of processing capacity.
Practical result: higher copper prices and increased costs for electrical goods, EVs and IT hardware unless action is taken.

Context and relevance

This matters because copper is a core input for electrification and digital infrastructure — you can’t easily substitute it at scale. The timing is critical: peak primary supply is projected as demand accelerates, so manufacturers, datacentre operators, energy planners and policymakers face potential supply shocks and price volatility.

The report ties into broader trends: global push to electrify transport and grids, rapid deployment of renewables, and the AI/datacentre expansion that increases copper used in cabling and power delivery. Concentration of refining capacity and climate risks at mine sites add geopolitical and operational fragility to the supply chain.

Why should I read this?

Short version: if you buy hardware, run a datacentre, manage EV fleets, or work in procurement/supply chain — this is a proper heads‑up. Prices and lead times for copper‑heavy kit could jump, and planning now (stocking spares, designing for material efficiency, diversifying suppliers) will save pain later. Read it to avoid nasty surprises.

Author style

Punchy takeaway: this isn’t a niche commodity scare — it’s a structural supply issue that could raise costs across electrification and tech. If the projections are right, waiting for the market to sort itself out will be expensive.

Source

Source: https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/09/copper_shortage/