AI and automation could erase 10.4 million US roles by 2030

Summary

Forrester forecasts that AI and automation could eliminate about 6.1% of US jobs by 2030 — roughly 10.4 million positions compared with today. The firm frames this as a slow, structural shift rather than a sudden employment collapse: losses will be permanent for affected roles, unlike cyclical recession job losses.

The research expects AI to augment many jobs as well — about one in five roles will be influenced by AI by 2030 — and finds that generative and agentic AI are accelerating the reach of automation. Forrester also warns of risks from over-automation, notes some firms have already reversed AI-driven cuts, and highlights that many recent layoffs are financially driven with AI used as a justification.

Key Points

Forrester estimates 10.4 million US roles (6.1% of jobs) could be lost to AI and automation by 2030.
Job losses from AI are structural and permanent, unlike recessionary (cyclical) losses.
About 20% of roles will be augmented by AI by 2030, requiring reskilling and investment by employers.
Generative and agentic AI now account for a larger share of automation — Forrester raises GenAI’s contribution from 29% to ~50% since 2023.
There is a risk of over-automation: companies may face costly pullbacks, reputational damage, and poor employee experiences.
Some firms have reversed AI-first staffing moves; Forrester expects many organisations to regret rushed automation projects.
Forrester notes recent layoffs include a million US job cuts in 2025, with AI sometimes cited as the reason though many cuts are financially motivated.

Author’s take

Punchy and straight to the point: this isn’t an overnight apocalypse, but it is a significant, long-term reshaping of work. If you’re in HR, strategy or policy, the details matter — slow-moving structural shifts are easier to manage if you see them coming.

Context and relevance

This analysis sits amid a broader trend: agentic AI and improved GenAI systems are making automation more capable and more attractive to businesses. That raises questions for workforce planning, corporate governance and skills policy. The forecast is a reminder that employers, educators and regulators need to plan for reskilling, careful rollout of automation, and safeguards against hasty, reputation-damaging decisions.

Why should I read this?

Because if you hire, manage, train or make policy, this matters. It’s the difference between being reactive (and costly) and getting ahead with retraining and cautious automation. Short version: keep calm, but act — now’s the time to plan for changed jobs, not to panic about an instant AI Armageddon.

Source

Source: https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2026/01/13/ai_us_jobs_2030/