Four horsemen of the AI-pocalypse line up capex bigger than Israel’s GDP

Steven

Four horsemen of the AI-pocalypse line up capex bigger than Israel’s GDP

Summary

Four tech giants—Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft—plan to spend a combined roughly $635bn in 2026 on capital expenditure, largely targeted at datacentres and AI infrastructure. That total exceeds Israel’s 2025 GDP (~$610bn) and is larger than all cloud infrastructure services revenue in 2025 (~$419bn). Individual company plans cited include Amazon ~$200bn, Google ~$180bn, Microsoft ~120bn (run-rate) and Meta $115–135bn. The splurge is fuelling component shortages (notably memory), has investors jittery as returns lag expectations, and further accelerates the already fast-growing cloud market where AI is a major demand driver.

Key Points

  • The big four (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta) plan about $635bn total capex for 2026, mostly for AI and datacentre expansion.
  • That combined spend exceeds Israel’s 2025 GDP (~$610bn) and approaches Sweden’s GDP (~$662bn).
  • Amazon: ~ $200bn; Google: ~ $180bn; Microsoft: ~ $120bn run-rate; Meta: $115–135bn.
  • The pledged capex is larger than global cloud infrastructure services revenue in 2025 (~$419bn).
  • The spending boom is driving component shortages (memory, chips) as manufacturers prioritise datacentre-focused production.
  • Investors are uneasy because near-term returns haven’t matched the scale of investment; some share prices have reacted negatively.
  • Cloud market growth remains strong (≈30% YoY); market shares in Q4 2025: AWS ~28%, Azure ~21%, Google Cloud ~14%.
  • Tier-two AI infrastructure providers like CoreWeave are growing fast (CoreWeave now >$1.5bn quarterly revenue) and are joining the top cloud providers list.

Context and relevance

This story matters because it lays out just how much of the global technology and component ecosystem is being bent around AI. Huge capex commitments by the market leaders reshape supply chains, pricing and competitive dynamics—benefiting specialised AI cloud players, squeezing PC/phone component availability, and changing what governments and enterprises must plan for when thinking about digital sovereignty and infrastructure dependency.

Why should I read this?

Short version: these are monster numbers with real-world knock-on effects. If you care about cloud pricing, hardware shortages, investment risk, or who will control the infrastructure that runs next‑gen AI, this is exactly the story you want the quick hit on. We’ve done the number-crunching for you — it’s big, it’s messy, and it affects more than just the tech giants.

Source

Source: https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2026/02/06/ai_capex_plans/