PCs and phones to get more boring and expensive in 2026 thanks to memory drought
Summary
Research firms IDC and Gartner warn that an AI-driven surge in demand for DRAM and NAND has created a severe memory shortage that will reshape the PC and smartphone markets in 2026. IDC now expects PC shipments to fall ~11.3% and smartphone shipments to drop ~12.9%, with average selling prices rising as vendors pass higher memory costs to customers. Memory prices have already spiked — DRAM and NAND costs are multiple times higher than a year ago — and major vendors (Dell, HP, Lenovo) are raising prices or changing product mixes. Analysts say the tight supply could persist into 2027 as cloud providers and AI build-outs soak up much of the available capacity.
Key Points
- IDC predicts an industry “structural reset” driven by memory shortages; PC and smartphone unit volumes will decline sharply in 2026.
- Consumers are likely to see roughly a mid-teens rise in device prices as memory costs are passed on.
- DRAM and NAND prices have already jumped several-fold in recent months; some forecasts expect further dramatic increases through 2026.
- Vendors are responding by raising ASPs, downgrading memory on budget models, optimising software for lower memory footprints, or sourcing from alternate suppliers.
- Buyers may hold devices longer or turn to refurbished/used markets as new-device availability tightens and costs rise.
- Analysts expect meaningful price and supply relief only by 2027, if at all, due to heavy AI-related demand from cloud providers.
Why should I read this?
Short version: your next phone or laptop could have less RAM, cost you more, and stick around in your pocket or office for longer. If you buy kit, manage fleets, or work in procurement, this is the sort of supply-shock that will affect budgets and upgrade cycles — and it’s coming now, not next quarter.
Context and Relevance
This story matters because the memory shortage is not an isolated price blip but a demand-driven shift tied to AI infrastructure spending. Cloud giants and AI projects are consuming large shares of DRAM and NAND capacity, tightening supplies for consumer devices. That changes manufacturer strategies (product mixes and supplier choices), influences corporate procurement and refresh plans, and strengthens the refurbished-device market. For IT managers, retailers and consumers, the immediate implications are higher costs, constrained choice in lower-cost segments, and the need to plan purchases or upgrades sooner rather than later.