Apple’s lousy AI didn’t stop it beating Samsung’s smartphone sales for the first time since 2011
Summary
Analyst firm Counterpoint forecasts Apple will displace Samsung as the world’s top smartphone manufacturer by shipment volume in 2025. Strong early sales of the iPhone 17, a large pool of second-hand iPhone owners likely to upgrade, and eased US–China trade frictions that reduced tariffs are cited as the main drivers. Counterpoint expects Apple shipments to rise about 10% in 2025, giving it roughly 19.4% market share versus Samsung’s 18.7%.
The firm also expects global smartphone shipments to grow ~3.5% in 2025, and predicts Samsung won’t catch Apple again until around 2029. Chinese OEMs such as Oppo, Xiaomi and vivo have struggled this year and may pivot to profit stability rather than chasing share.
Key Points
- Counterpoint projects Apple will top Samsung in shipment volume in 2025 — the first time since 2011.
- The iPhone 17 is selling faster than its predecessor, fuelling demand.
- About 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, creating a large upgrade pool.
- Apple’s modest AI features aren’t deterring buyers; improved AI later could spur additional upgrades.
- A US–China trade détente lowered tariffs, supporting Apple’s supply chain and demand in key markets.
- Counterpoint forecasts Apple to finish 2025 with ~19.4% share; Samsung at ~18.7% and unlikely to catch up before 2029.
- Chinese smartphone makers face headwinds and may prioritise stable profits over market-share expansion.
Why should I read this?
Quick take: it’s a market shake-up. If you follow phones, chips, or regional supply chains, this note explains why Apple is ahead despite underwhelming AI — upgrades, second-hand sales and trade moves matter more right now. Handy read to stay ahead without wading through the full report.
Context and Relevance
This matters for investors, component suppliers, app developers and competitors. A switch at the top affects component demand (memory, displays), manufacturing strategies and regional pricing. It also shows that product cycles and macro factors can outweigh software feature gaps in determining buyer behaviour. The prediction ties into broader industry themes: rising memory prices, a shift in Chinese OEM strategy, and Apple’s potential major redesign in 2027.