China’s scientific clout is growing as US influence wanes: the data show how
Summary
An analysis of 25 years of citation data from Clarivate’s examination of the Web of Science shows China steadily increasing its global research influence while the United States loses ground.
The Clarivate report, cited in Nature by Jeff Tollefson, highlights rising Chinese collaboration with European partners and expanding ties across southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. China overtook the US as the largest producer of research papers in 2020 and is now in position to lead on citations as well.
By contrast, US research output and citation impact have been slipping for years, with an accelerated decline since around 2018. The report attributes some of the US weakening to policy moves that reduced funding, restricted foreign students and undermined certain research areas.
Key Points
- Clarivate’s analysis uses a quarter-century of Web of Science citation data to map shifts in global research collaboration and impact.
- China has more than doubled its research output in the past decade and surpassed the US in paper volume in 2020.
- Chinese international collaborations — especially with Europe — continue to rise and are expanding into emerging regions (SE Asia, Middle East, Africa).
- Multilateral collaborations tend to produce higher-cited work; global collaboration is still increasing overall.
- The US shows a long-term decline in domestic citation impact that accelerated after ~2018 and was worsened by policy actions that cut funding and limited researcher mobility.
- China–US collaborations are declining, a trend that observers warn is damaging for global science.
- Jonathan Adams (Clarivate) warns the era of unquestioned US leadership in science is ending, with potential consequences for wealth creation and quality of life.
Why should I read this?
Short version: this matters if you care where big discoveries, funding and talent will come from next. China isn’t just publishing more — it’s plugging into international networks and climbing the citation ladder. The US is slipping, partly for political reasons. Read this if you want the data-backed quick read on how the global research map is being redrawn.
Author style: Punchy — this isn’t a subtle shift. The piece flags a real inflection point in global science that policymakers, funders and research leaders should take seriously. If you need to know why collaboration patterns and citation impact matter, this saves you the time of wading through the full Clarivate report.