Copper supplies set to peak just as tech needs more

Summary

A new S&P Global study warns that global copper production will peak around 2030 at roughly 33 million metric tonnes while demand could climb to about 42 million metric tonnes by 2040 — creating an estimated shortfall of about 10 million tonnes if supply doesn’t expand. Rapid electrification (household electrification, EVs, renewables), expanding transmission networks and growing data-centre/AI infrastructure are the main demand drivers. Supply faces headwinds from declining ore grades, long project lead times (average ~17 years), climate risks to mining regions and concentrated smelting/refining capacity, particularly in China. Recycling and secondary sources will help but won’t close the gap; S&P calls for faster permitting, more investment, processing capacity expansion and multilateral cooperation to build resilience.

Key Points

S&P Global projects primary copper production to peak in 2030 at ~33 million metric tonnes while demand may reach ~42 million by 2040 — a potential ~10 million-tonne shortfall.
Main demand drivers: electrification (domestic and industrial), electric vehicles, renewables and increased IT/datacentre infrastructure for AI.
Supply constraints include falling ore grades, higher extraction costs, climate-related risks to mines and long development timelines (~17 years to bring new mines online).
Recycling will grow but is unlikely to supply more than about one-third of needs by 2040; secondary sources alone cannot close the gap.
China accounts for around 40–50% of smelting/refining capacity, concentrating geopolitical and systemic supply-chain risk.
S&P recommends streamlined permitting, stable investment frameworks, new processing capacity and multilateral cooperation to avoid price spikes and shortages.

Context and Relevance

This matters because copper is a backbone material for modern electrified economies — from wiring and transformers to EV motors and chip interconnects. A sustained supply shortfall would push prices higher (copper hit a record near $5.84/lb in late 2025), raising manufacturing costs across consumer electronics, data centres and energy infrastructure. For procurement teams, infrastructure planners and tech vendors, the report signals a need to factor raw-material risk into long-term sourcing, design choices (material substitution and efficiency) and capital planning. It also feeds into broader conversations about supply-chain resilience, geopolitical concentration and the pace of green-energy deployment.

Why should I read this?

Short version: copper’s about to get scarce and pricier — and that will sting EV makers, datacentre builders and anyone buying electrical kit. If you care about hardware costs, supply-chain headaches or planning long-term infrastructure, this is a neat heads-up so you can stop being surprised later.

Source

Source: https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2026/01/09/copper_shortage/