As we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targets
Article meta
Article Date: 26 January 2026
Article URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00246-z
Article Image: https://media.nature.com/w767/magazine-assets/d41586-026-00246-z/d41586-026-00246-z_51970254.jpg
Summary
The authors argue that, with global mean temperatures already around or above 1.5 °C, continuing to treat a temperature limit as the primary policy target is no longer useful. They propose a practical alternative: measure and accelerate the “clean-energy shift” — the percentage-point difference between the growth rate of clean-energy generation and the growth rate of total energy demand. That metric focuses efforts on rapidly expanding renewables, storage, grids and manufacturing capacity so clean energy displaces fossil fuels. The paper suggests five-year “rungs” for milestones aligned with UNFCCC cycles and explains why this approach is more politically effective and easier to track than chasing temperature thresholds.
Key Points
- Global average temperatures have approached or exceeded 1.5 °C (2024 averaged ~1.55 °C), making the Paris 1.5 °C target effectively unattainable in the near term.
- Temperature thresholds are hard to determine, slow to confirm and can invite risky geoengineering responses.
- Proposal: adopt the “clean-energy shift” metric — growth rate of clean-energy generation minus growth rate of total energy demand — to measure progress.
- A positive clean-energy shift means clean supply is outpacing demand growth, squeezing out fossil fuels; the larger the shift, the faster the exit from fossil fuels.
- Recommend five-year incremental targets (rungs) to guide policy toward a fossil-free energy system by 2050, aligned with COP and UNFCCC cycles.
- The metric focuses on fossil-fuel displacement (which accounts for roughly 90% of CO2 emissions) though it does not capture non-fossil greenhouse sources like deforestation or soil emissions.
Why should I read this?
Look — 1.5 °C is probably gone. This piece gives you a clearer, no-nonsense way to measure climate progress: track how fast clean energy is beating overall demand. It’s pragmatic, politically shrewd and focused on what actually replaces coal, oil and gas. Read it if you want a crisp policy-ready idea that could steer real action rather than debate semantics.
Context and relevance
Punchy author style: the paper reframes climate policy from a distant temperature goal to a concrete, actionable industrial and energy transition target. This is highly relevant to policymakers, energy ministers, investors in clean technology and climate NGOs because it links measurable deployment of renewables and storage to political incentives and economic development. The proposal dovetails with COP calls to scale renewable capacity rapidly and offers a practical ladder of five-year milestones to reach net-zero by 2050.