China could be the world’s biggest public funder of science within two years
Article Date: 19 March 2026
Article URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00618-5
Article Image: 
Summary
US researchers for the Frontiers in Science and Innovation Policy (FSIP) programme have forecast that China could overtake the United States as the world’s largest public funder of research within the next two to three years. Using purchasing-power-adjusted OECD data, the analysis highlights rapidly rising Chinese government R&D spending (up 90% to US$133 billion in the decade to 2023) compared with much slower growth in US public R&D (up 12% to US$155 billion).
The FSIP projection assumes US government R&D spending stays broadly flat and incorporates a recent slowdown in China’s growth rate. It also notes China’s growing research output in top journals and government plans to lift overall R&D by at least 7% per year from 2026–2030. However, China still lags the US in absolute spending on fundamental research ($53 billion versus $120 billion in 2023), even though Chinese government investment in basic science has expanded markedly over the past decade.
Key Points
- FSIP forecast: China could surpass the US in public R&D funding within about two to three years (earliest around 2028 ±1 year).
- OECD purchasing-power-adjusted figures show Chinese government R&D rose ~90% to US$133bn (2013–2023) versus a 12% rise to US$155bn in the US.
- China is already ahead on several research-output measures and may double the US contribution in Nature Index-tracked journals by end of 2026.
- Despite gains, China still spends less than half the US on fundamental research (US$53bn vs US$120bn in 2023), though Chinese public funding for basic science tripled 2013–2023.
- Chinese policy aims (proposed 7%+ annual increase 2026–2030) and a strategic push for tech leadership underpin the spending rise, but PPP adjustments may overstate domestic purchasing power for internationally priced items.
- Potential long-term effect: a shift in the global research epicentre with implications for innovation, business productivity and geopolitical influence.
Author style
Punchy: this is a crisp, high-stakes briefing — the numbers suggest a real geopolitical and scientific turning point, so read the detail if you care about who shapes research and tech priorities over the next decade.
Why should I read this?
Look, if you follow science, tech policy or economic strategy, this is the short, sharp heads-up you didn’t know you needed. The article explains why a quiet shift in budget lines could change who leads global innovation — and fast. We’ve done the heavy reading so you can get straight to what matters.
Context and Relevance
Why this matters: public funding seeds the basic research that fuels private-sector innovation years later. A sustained relative decline in US public R&D, combined with rising Chinese government spending, could reorient where breakthrough science and applied technologies emerge. The FSIP analysis uses PPP-adjusted OECD data — useful for cross-country comparisons but imperfect because many research inputs are bought on global markets at international prices.
Broader trend: China’s push to boost both fundamental and applied research is embedded in a wider strategy to secure economic and political influence through science and technology. The timing of any funding crossover will affect research collaborations, talent flows, industrial policy and long-term productivity growth.